SOAG: BookBiz News

3-10-2025: Trade Publishing’s Revenue Keep Climbing | Scandals, Scrutiny, and the Business of Books | When Indie Bookstores Thrive—Until They Don’t | B&N Workers Win First Union Contracts | Wiley’s AI

Trade Publishing’s Revenue Keeps Climbing—But How It’s Made Is Changing

The AAP’s final 2024 sales numbers are in, and while we’ve already covered some emerging trends—growth in trade publishing, a strong year for adult fiction, and digital formats holding steady—the details reveal shifts in the market that may surprise you.

The biggest news? Digital audio brought in $1.019 billion, up 24.4% from the previous year. eBooks, once thought to be publishing’s unstoppable future, inched up to $973 million—a modest increase, but not enough to maintain their lead.

A major factor in this shift? Spotify. The company’s entrance into audiobooks added a new, aggressive player to the market. Unlike Audible’s credit-based model, Spotify stuck with its access-based approach, bundling audiobooks into its premium subscriptions. Whether this is sustainable long-term remains to be seen, but for now, it’s undeniable: people are spending more on digital audio than they are on eBooks.

Meanwhile, fiction is driving the market in a way it hasn’t before. Adult fiction pulled in $3.265 billion, widening its lead over adult nonfiction. In 2023, fiction edged ahead of nonfiction by just $52 million. In 2024, that gap expanded dramatically to nearly $400 million.

But it’s not print sales driving this trend—nonfiction still sells more physical books than fiction. Still, fiction is generating more revenue overall in digital formats:

• 34.4% of sales came from trade paperbacks

• 25.4% from hardcovers

• 19.9% from eBooks

• 16.5% from digital audio

Compare that to nonfiction, where print still holds the bigger share:

• 42.4% hardcover

• 31.2% trade paperback

• 13.7% digital audio

• 7.8% eBooks

In other words, fiction is thriving because it’s found an audience in digital formats that are growing, while nonfiction remains more reliant on hardcover sales. And with publishers focused on premium hardcovers for nonfiction, pricing strategies might be playing a role—hardcover pricing has been climbing, and readers may be opting for library copies, secondhand books, or digital alternatives.

One more thing that stands out in the AAP data: Returns are dropping. The industry has been inching toward more efficiency in recent times, but this was one of the first years where print returns saw a meaningful dip. Adult print books had a 15.7% return rate, down from 17.7% the year before. Children’s and YA print returns also declined. Mass market paperbacks—historically a high-return format—continue to shrink in relevance, and by 2026, they might not be a major factor at all.

One thing’s certain: readers are driving this shift, not publishers. Will they double down on the formats bringing in the most revenue, or try to rebalance the scales? If fiction keeps thriving in digital spaces, will nonfiction follow, or will it stay locked in the premium-priced hardcover model?

Scandals, Scrutiny, and the Business of Books

Publishing is no stranger to controversy. Every year brings a fresh round of public disputes, lawsuits, or industry-wide debates about who gets published, who gets canceled, and how the business responds when the spotlight turns uncomfortable.

Two recent cases highlight different ends of that spectrum: one involving a lawsuit against Neil Gaiman, the other a romance novel pulled from publication after reader backlash. The first is playing out in the legal system, the second in the court of public opinion. Both raise questions about how the industry reacts when the conversation turns from books to the people behind them.

Gaiman, one of the best-known authors of his generation, has been accused of sexual assault in a lawsuit filed in Wisconsin by a former employee, Scarlett Pavlovich, in which she alleges Gaiman assaulted her in New Zealand. His legal team has moved to have the case dismissed on the grounds that U.S. courts have no jurisdiction over events that occur in another country. They also claim Pavlovich is actually trying to damage his reputation rather than seek legal recourse.

The accusations are serious, and public conversation around them has been robust online, with some readers choosing to boycott his work while others question Pavlovich’s motives. Meanwhile, in contrast to other publishing scandals, industry institutions have remained quiet. None of his publishers have made a statement. His books remain on shelves. There are no reports of pulled contracts, halted projects, or formal distancing.

On the other hand, romance author Sophie Lark’s latest book, Sparrow and Vine, was pulled from the market due to backlash over insensitive dialogue. That controversy had nothing to do with legal wrongdoing, but rather with lines readers found offensive, including a character joking about undocumented workers and referencing Elon Musk’s business strategies.

Lark apologized, saying she had intended to write a flawed character but had failed to frame it appropriately. , even admitting she chose to disregard her publisher’s advice to remove the lines. The fallout was swift and furious enough that she announced she was “pausing” the book’s publication and rewriting the series.

What’s striking here is the contrast: Lark’s book was scrapped within weeks, while Gaiman’s books remain untouched despite a legal accusation. The industry’s inconsistent response to scandals is clear. We’ve seen authors lose book deals over past tweets while others, accused of far more serious actions, see little to no change in their publishing careers.

Does the difference lie in how the accusations are handled? Whether the author fights back or apologizes? The scale of their influence?

One answer might be that publishing reacts faster to public backlash than to legal disputes. A poorly received book can be yanked from shelves overnight. A lawsuit, on the other hand, moves at the slow pace of the courts—and until there’s a ruling, publishers may not want to act prematurely.

Another factor is the author’s worth to the industry. Gaiman, with his decades-long career and a web of lucrative publishing, film, and television projects, is a proven and more powerful asset than a midlist romance author with a single book. Business realities often determine who gets dropped and who gets defended.

Yet that another question: why have some high-profile figures—like Kevin Spacey—been swiftly cut off from their industries while others remain untouched? The answer isn’t just about influence. It’s also about industry structures and timing. Spacey was accused at the height of the #MeToo movement, when Hollywood was under pressure to respond decisively. If a studio decides a performer is too much of a liability, they can be removed, recast, or digitally erased.

Publishing doesn’t work the same way. Once books are printed and stocked in stores, recalling them is expensive and complicated. Most authors aren’t under active contracts the same way actors are tied to ongoing productions. And because books remain available indefinitely, there’s less urgency to make a public decision right away.

Lark is rewriting her book. Gaiman’s legal team is fighting to have his case dismissed. The industry, as always, is watching. But the bigger conversation isn’t about these two authors alone, but about—when the dust settles—who controls what’s worth keeping on the shelf?

When Indie Bookstores Thrive—Until They Don’t

Shakespeare & Co. has closed two of its three locations in New York City. The 105th Street store had barely lasted a year. The Lexington Avenue store had been around for over 20. Now, only the Lincoln Square location remains.

It all started when the landlord raised the rent on the Lexington store. Losing that revenue made it harder to sustain the 105th Street store. Co-owner Dane Neller put it simply: labor and rent keep going up, but their prices can’t. At a certain point, the math no longer worked.

Independent bookstores are supposed to be thriving—or at least that’s been the story for the past few years. Sales were up. New stores were opening. Bookselling had made it through the worst of the pandemic, past the years of Amazon-fueled panic, and into a moment of renewed optimism.

But thriving where, exactly? And for how long?

It’s not enough to say indie bookstores are doing well. Some are, many aren’t. A store in a lower-rent neighborhood with a strong local customer base and no sudden expenses might be fine. A store in Manhattan, where rent spikes aren’t something you negotiate so much as survive, is another story.

Shakespeare & Co. wasn’t just a bookstore. It had a café. It had on-demand printing. It supplied textbooks to Hunter College. Those extras weren’t just for show—they were part of what kept the business going. Diversification only makes sense until one part of the equation stops working. If textbook sales drop or café revenue softens, suddenly the whole model is vulnerable.

This wasn’t Shakespeare & Co’s first struggle. The chain once had multiple locations. Then it shrank to just one in 2014. Then it expanded again. Now, it’s shrinking again. It’s an old, familiar cycle; many bookstores have been through it. Some expand too fast; others make it work. Still others get taken down by nothing more dramatic than a lease renewal they can’t afford.

For now, the Lincoln Square location is staying put. Maybe it will last. Maybe it won’t.

Barnes & Noble Workers Win First Union Contracts

Barnes & Noble workers at three New York City locations have ratified their first union contracts. The Union Square flagship store, the Upper West Side location on 82nd Street, and the Park Slope store in Brooklyn now have agreements in place with the Retail, Wholesale and Department Store Union (RWDSU). The contracts cover over 200 workers and include wage increases, job security protections, healthcare benefits, and safety measures.

Organizing at the Union Square store started three years ago, driven by frustration over low wages and poor working conditions. Workers fought for guaranteed raises, protections against layoffs, and a stronger voice in how their stores are run. Now, they have a contract that locks those gains in place.

Unionized bookstores aren’t common, but that has started to change. B&N workers in other locations are also organizing; the Bloomington, Illinois store just reached a tentative agreement. More stores could follow.

Barnes & Noble’s corporate turnaround over the past few years was built on giving individual stores more control, leaning into the strengths of local booksellers, and moving away from the sterile, one-size-fits-all model that nearly tanked the company. Unionization adds a different kind of shift—one the company likely hadn’t planned for.

So far, B&N has made no comment on the contract ratifications. Perhaps, like works in other locations, they’re watching to see what comes next.

Wiley’s AI Licensing Is Making Money. That Shouldn’t Surprise Anyone

Wiley’s latest earnings report showed something that would have been unthinkable a few years ago: AI licensing is becoming a meaningful revenue stream. The company expanded an existing contract for AI training data, bringing in $9 million this quarter alone. Meanwhile, textbook sales continue to slide, down 6% year over year.

This isn’t an accident. Publishers aren’t just sitting back while AI companies scrape their work. They’re licensing it, packaging it, and selling it outright. As we wrote previously, Pearson did the same thing last year, announcing plans to turn its digital content into an AI-ready database. We predicted that move was a signal, and Wiley’s report confirms it: AI isn’t replacing publishing; it’s becoming part of the business model.

Our industry isn’t known for moving fast, but when there’s money to be made, companies find a way. Academic publishers are well positioned for this shift. They own vast archives of structured, high-value content—exactly the kind of material AI companies want. Unlike trade publishers, which deal with individual authors and literary estates, academic publishers own most of their content outright, making licensing deals cleaner and more lucrative.

Don’t look for AI-written books to flood the market, though. The companies licensing this data aren’t trying to generate beach reads; they’re training AI models that will power research tools, automation, and whatever the next phase of AI development looks like.

That’s why it’s not worth fighting AI. It’s here to stay, so we may as well figure out how to profit from it (while maintaining our ethics, of course). Textbook sales might be shrinking, but licensing deals are filling the gap. AI isn’t going away, and neither are the companies selling their content to build it.

What doesn’t matter:
Bonnier Books had a record year, but it doesn’t mean much outside its own ecosystem. The company’s sales are up, and it’s doing well in Sweden, Finland, and the UK. Good for them, but this isn’t a market-shifting development.

Reagan Arthur’s new imprint has a nice name, but that’s about it for now. The branding story about loving cardinals during the pandemic is sweet, but the imprint’s real impact will depend on whether the books it publishes actually sell.

The Twitter handle change for PM Member Profiles. Publishers Lunch letting people link to Bluesky instead of Twitter is practical, but it’s not a major shift. Social media isn’t where publishing is making or losing money.

Empowering Global Voices, One Ghostwriter at a Time

Claudia Suzanne

Wambtac Ghostwriters LLC aims to create a world-wide network of professional book ghostwriters who can provide the bridge-to-publishing support authors need from people who share the same language, sensibilities, and cultural concerns.

Toward that end, we are launching two initiatives. The first is Spring to Fall GPDP, which will run concurrently with our Winter to Summer GPDP and be timed for UTC +1– +3 time-zone students.

The second is Train the Trainer Solutions, designed to ensure GPDP’s skills, processes, and ghostwriting psych will continue empowering ghostwriters and authors for decades to come.

Other WCLLC News

When we launched SOAG: BookBiz News, we intended to include occasional tutorials for writers, editors, and ghostwriters. While it was a great plan, it simply did not work. Passing on theory, skills, and ghostwriting psych via a Substack newsletter proved too cumbersome.

That’s why I wrote THE BEGINNING AND THE END: Everything you need to know about the job to land the job. It details the knowledge, skill sets, tools, processes, political/business tactics, and mindset transitions professional book ghostwriters like me use to close premium-fee gigs and handle common obstacles on the way to delivering marketable literary properties. It will become part of the our new training initiatives, along with the 6^th edition of THIS BUSINESS OF BOOKS: A complete overview of the industry from concept through sales, THE GHOSTWRITING PROCESS: How to create marketable literary properties, and THIS BUSINESS OF WRITING: Professionalism and solopreneurship, all works-in-progress.

Meanwhile, THE GLOSSARY: A lexicon for authors, writers, and ghostwriters will be released as an eBook this summer, and I’ll share how you can participate in THE BOOMER’S IMPACT: An anthology in the next issue of SOAG: BookBiz News.